Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2174 · HOU → STL
departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 2:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/15 23%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 14%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
12pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.