Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2569
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2569 · DAL → TPA
departs 12:18 PM CT · arrives 3:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.43 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.