Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 2614 · SMF → LGB
departs 4:12 PM PT · arrives 5:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 30%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.