Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2614
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2614 · SMF → LGB
departs 4:13 PM PT · arrives 5:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 71%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 30%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
LGB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.