Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2645 · SFO → LAX
departs 5:56 PM PT · arrives 7:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 94%
Sat 11/14 41%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 47%
Tue 11/17 55%
Wed 11/18 47%
Thu 11/19 58%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
91%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
91%
Leave 15+ late
82%
Arrive 1h+ late
64%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
91%
Yes 91%
No 9%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed – in 24h
–
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
8%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
29%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.