Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2654 · COS → HOU
departs 10:57 AM MT · arrives 2:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 18%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 29%
Thu 11/19 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.