Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2654 · COS → HOU
departs 10:57 AM MT · arrives 2:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 29%
Thu 11/19 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
COS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.