Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2878 · DEN → ICT
departs 10:59 AM MT · arrives 1:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 16%
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 967 ft forecast at DEN that day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.