Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2878 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

WN 2878 · DEN → ICT

departs 10:59 AM MT · arrives 1:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ICT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2878 · DEN → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?