Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3002
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3002 · MSY → DCA
departs 5:27 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 41%
Tue 11/17 34%
Wed 11/18 37%
Thu 11/19 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.