Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3160 · MSY → HOU
departs 12:46 PM CT · arrives 2:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 11/14 11%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 14%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.