Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3515 · OGG → HNL
departs 1:47 PM HT · arrives 2:42 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 26%
Fri 11/20 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
This flight has been late 6% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.