Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3515 · OGG → HNL
departs 1:47 PM HT · arrives 2:42 PM HT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 26%
Fri 11/20 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from OGG are often late
↓
This flight has been late 6% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.