Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4058
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4058 · DAL → BNA
departs 3:52 PM CT · arrives 5:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 32%
Thu 11/19 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.00 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.