Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4271
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Today
WN 4271 · AUS → SAN
departs 5:27 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 11/16 56%
Thu 11/19 54%
Fri 11/20 46%
Sat 11/21 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
81%
chance · ±0 pts
+33 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
81%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
56%
Cancelled
19%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
81%
Yes 81%
No 19%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +42 pts in 24h
+42 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
19%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.08 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.