Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4271
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4271 · AUS → SAN
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 6:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 54%
Fri 11/20 46%
Sat 11/21 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.