Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4472 · SAN → DAL
departs 5:19 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Sat 11/14 35%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 32%
Thu 11/19 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.