WN 4611 · MCO → BUF

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4611 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?