Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4611 · MCO → BUF
departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/15 50%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 39%
Wed 11/18 37%
Thu 11/19 53%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.