Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 894 · BUR → OAK
departs 4:38 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 29%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
OAK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,467 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.