Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 894 · BUR → OAK
departs 4:38 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15 51%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 39%
Fri 11/20 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.