Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1592 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 1592 · CLT → LAX

departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 11:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1592 · CLT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?