Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 1761 · DFW → PIT

departs 6:58 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1761 · DFW → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?