Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2275 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

AA 2275 · DCA → BTV

departs 10:13 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2275 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?