Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

departs 5:08 PM MT · arrives 11:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?