Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1484
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 1484 · MSP → DTW
departs 8:55 PM CT · arrives 11:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 31%
Fri 11/20 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.