Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1599
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 1599 · MSP → MSN
departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 9:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.