Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2145 · MSP → SAN
departs 6:21 PM CT · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 30%
Wed 11/18 29%
Thu 11/19 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.