Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2578 · DTW → AUS
departs 8:08 PM ET · arrives 10:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.