Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2815 · ATL → EYW
departs 5:53 PM ET · arrives 7:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 10%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 17%
Fri 11/20 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 25 kt
Ceiling 3,300 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.