Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4008
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 4008 · JAX → MIA
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 24%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from JAX are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.