Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
OO 3472 · SAN → FAT
departs 9:57 PM PT · arrives 11:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 61%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 27%
Fri 11/20 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.