WN 1402 · LAS → FAT

departs 1:41 PM PT · arrives 3:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1402 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?