Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 1402 · LAS → FAT
departs 1:42 PM PT · arrives 3:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 37%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±9 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.