Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3015 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

WN 3015 · BUR → LAS

departs 6:51 PM PT · arrives 8:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±8 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3015 · BUR → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?