Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 3015 · BUR → LAS
departs 6:49 PM PT · arrives 8:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Mon 11/16 36%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 49%
Sat 11/21 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.