Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4046 · SMF → SAN
departs 4:39 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 89%
Sun 11/15 51%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 38%
Wed 11/18 35%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.