Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4046 · SMF → SAN
departs 4:23 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Mon 11/16 54%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 35%
Thu 11/19 49%
Fri 11/20 38%
Sat 11/21 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±10 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.