Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 431 · DCA → HOU
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 2:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 21%
Thu 11/19 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.