Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4608
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4608 · SAN → OAK
departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 5:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 37%
Wed 11/18 29%
Thu 11/19 46%
Sat 11/21 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.30 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.