Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4608
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4608 · SAN → OAK
departs 4:58 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Mon 11/16 47%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 29%
Thu 11/19 46%
Sat 11/21 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.13 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.