Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4952 · SAN → FAT
departs 8:43 PM PT · arrives 10:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 34%
Sat 11/21 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.