Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 4952 · SAN → FAT
departs 7:52 PM PT · arrives 9:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Mon 11/16 44%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 34%
Sat 11/21 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at FAT that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.