Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3413
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
YX 3413 · CHS → IAD
departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 6%
Wed 11/18 12%
Thu 11/19 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from CHS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.