Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5786 SCHEDULED

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

YX 5786 · ORF → LGA

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±9 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5786 · ORF → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?