Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
YX 5786 · ORF → LGA
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.