Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1650 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

AA 1650 · MIA → SDF

departs 9:34 PM ET · arrives 12:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

SDF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1650 · MIA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?