Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

AA 438 · NAS → MIA

departs 6:40 PM EST · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 6pm departures from NAS are usually not late

Weather at each end

NAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.07 in

MIA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 438 · NAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?