Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 995 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

AA 995 · MIA → GRU

departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 7:29 AM -03

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRU?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GRU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

GRU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 995 · MIA → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?