Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
OO 3491 · FAT → SAN
departs 10:34 AM PT · arrives 12:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 32%
Fri 11/20 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±9 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at SAN that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.